World
Is a wealthy country necessarily a just one? Or must justice come first if prosperity is to follow? Long confined to the realm of moral or institutional debate, this question is now being treated as a fully-fledged economic issue. A recent study by economists shows that justice does more than settle disputes — it also fuels growth.
Across the globe, access to justice remains a massive challenge. According to the World Justice Project, around 5.1 billion people – two thirds of humanity – lack effective access to justice. The imbalance is striking: Europe averages 22 judges per 100,000 inhabitants, while India has 15 per million, and some sub-Saharan African countries have fewer than one per 100,000.
This “legal divide” often mirrors a deeper economic one. The OECD estimates that unresolved disputes cost economies between 0.5% and 3% of GDP every year 1 . Economists Arnaud Deseau, Adam Levai and Michèle Schmiegelow set out to go further: to measure the link between access to justice and economic growth. Drawing on nearly seventy years of data from 143 countries, their study is the first to quantify, on this scale, how the presence of judges can become a powerful driver of development.
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OECD., D. C., et al. Building a Business Case for Access to Justice. 2019.
Beyond Laws on Paper
Access to justice means being able to claim one’s rights. For a woman facing domestic violence, it means real protection. For a small business owner, recovering unpaid debts. For an employee, defending a contract in court. For a farmer, proving ownership of land.
In many countries these rights exist in theory, but remain out of reach in practice. Overloaded courts, endless procedures, prohibitive costs, corruption: the gap between written law and lived law creates what researchers call a “justice deficit.” In the absence of an effective justice system, it is often might that makes right.
Provincial court of Zambezia, Quelimane, Mozambique, 2017. Its jurisdiction covered more than five million people. © Cornelius Kibelka via Wikimedia Commons
Local studies had already delivered their verdict
Before this global analysis, several studies had highlighted the economic impact of justice, but only at regional or national level. In Brazil, a 2014 study found that opening new civil courts boosted local entrepreneurship by cutting trial delays. In France, economists observed that closing a quarter of labour courts led to a decline in business creation and employment in affected areas. Other research has shown that it is not just the law itself, but the real independence of judges that drives growth. What had been missing was a long-term, worldwide measurement, which, by bringing together for the first time a broad range of international data on access to justice, is the gap this new study aims to address.
To tackle the question, the researchers carried out a unique and ambitious study. The researchers reconstructed more than half a century of judicial data across 143 countries, from 1953 to 2021. To capture access to justice in concrete terms, they focused on one key indicator: the number of judges per 100,000 inhabitants – a direct measure of a country’s capacity to resolve disputes. They then cross-referenced this with GDP per capita, education levels, investment and democracy indicators.
Using econometric methods designed to isolate cause and effect, they tracked a specific metric: what happens in a country when the number of judges rises. By using several instruments to control for factors that could drive both growth and judicial expansion – such as higher public spending – they were able to pinpoint the impact of justice itself. Their conclusion is clear: where justice advances, prosperity follows.
Their estimates show that a 1% increase in the number of judges leads to a rise of about 0.4 percentage points in GDP per capita over five years – an effect comparable to major public investment programs. The link holds regardless of political system or legal tradition, and is even stronger in developing countries, where the economic return on judicial investment can be twice as high as in wealthier nations.
The Supreme Federal Court of Brazil in session, December 7, 2006. © Fabio Pozzebom/Agência Brasil_CC BY 3.0 BR_Wikipedia
Trust as Fuel for the Economy
The connection between justice and development unfolds step by step. Recruiting and training more judges speeds up case processing, lowers costs, and makes going to court a realistic option for citizens and small businesses alike.
That speed changes everything. Contracts are enforced, payments are made on time, investors are reassured. Banks lend more because they trust the courts to resolve disputes efficiently. A strong justice system also holds governments accountable, curbs abuses and reduces corruption. Public money is better spent, and institutions become more credible.
Gradually, trust in the rules of the game unlocks economic initiative, stimulating people to innovate, create, and invest. This effect is even stronger in low-income countries, where each additional judge can resolve very concrete problems – securing property titles, recovering unpaid wages, settling commercial disputes – allowing local economies to breathe. Justice is not only a democratic cornerstone – it is the oil that keeps the economic engine running smoothly. When it works, everything moves faster and more securely. In the end, it could be said that a nation’s wealth is measured by how much its citizens trust the rules that govern them.
